Explore the anticipated economic trends and their implications for markets in 2024
Topics covered
Global GDP growth forecasts
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global GDP is projected to grow by 3.0% in 2024, a slight improvement from the estimated 2.8% in 2023. This growth is driven by robust consumer spending in emerging markets and a rebound in manufacturing activities.
Inflation rates and central bank policies
Inflation rates are expected to stabilize around 3.5% globally, down from the peak of 8.0% recorded in 2022. Central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, are projected to maintain interest rates at current levels, with potential cuts by the end of the year if inflation continues to fall.
Unemployment trends
The unemployment rate is forecasted to remain low, averaging 4.2% in developed economies. In contrast, emerging markets may experience slight increases in unemployment, potentially reaching 6.5% as labor markets adjust to changing economic conditions.
Sectoral performance outlook
Key sectors such as technology and renewable energy are expected to outperform, with projected growth rates of 7.0% and 6.5%, respectively. In contrast, traditional sectors like manufacturing may see slower growth, estimated at 2.5%.
Geopolitical impacts
Geopolitical tensions, particularly in Eastern Europe and Asia, continue to pose risks to global trade and investment. The World Trade Organization (WTO) estimates a 1.5% reduction in trade volumes if tensions escalate further, impacting economic growth projections.
