Robert Jenrick will reassure markets by promising the Bank of England's independence and committing to reform—not abolish—the Office for Budget Responsibility, while setting out Reform UK's fiscal priorities
Robert Jenrick used a City address this week to try to steady investors and reshape the economic narrative around Reform UK. Speaking after a front‑bench reshuffle led by Nigel Farage, the party’s treasury spokesman set out a familiar refrain — protect the independence of the UK’s fiscal and monetary institutions — while also promising structural changes he says will make them more accountable and better informed by market experience.
What he said
– On the Bank of England: Jenrick made clear Reform UK would not seek to politicise interest‑rate decisions. He stressed that the Monetary Policy Committee should remain the province of technocrats so voters have predictable, expert‑led monetary policy.
At the same time, he urged greater transparency from the Bank and more private‑sector input into discussions that feed into the monetary system.
– On the OBR: Rather than scrapping the Office for Budget Responsibility, Jenrick proposed altering how it recruits and works.
He wants open recruitment drives to bring in specialist forecasters and pay structures that reward predictive accuracy — measures he says would inject methodological diversity and reduce past forecasting errors.
– On the Bank’s remit: The speech also suggested removing the Bank’s explicit duty to support the economy’s transition to net zero, arguing that such obligations can distract from the central mission of maintaining price stability.
– On fiscal discipline and credibility: Jenrick pledged that every Reform spending commitment will be fully costed and submitted for independent scrutiny, presenting this as a central pillar of the party’s economic credibility.
Why it matters
The timing of the speech — immediately after a front‑bench reshuffle that saw figures such as Suella Braverman moved into new roles — signals a concerted effort by Reform to present itself as a serious alternative on economic policy. Markets and political commentators will be watching closely for the next stage: detailed costings, legislative proposals and the technical mechanics of the reforms Jenrick sketched.
Analysts welcomed the overt pledge to preserve institutional independence. For investors, the headline commitment that the Bank of England and the OBR will remain formally autonomous reduces the likelihood of sudden, disruptive interventions. Yet preserving formal independence is only the starting point; markets will judge Reform by the substance that follows — whether costings are robust, whether forecasts are accepted in practice, and how any new advisory channels are structured.
What could change — and the questions that remain
– Private‑sector advisers: Opening advisory committees to more practitioners aims to inject market experience into policymaking. Proponents say that could sharpen policy by exposing models and assumptions to practical scrutiny. Critics worry it risks diluting independence or giving disproportionate influence to vested interests unless clear safeguards are set out.
– OBR reform: Tying pay to forecasting accuracy and broadening recruitment may improve accountability and technical standards. But some economists caution that linking pay to accuracy could create incentives for conservative bias — safe, risk‑averse forecasts that systematically underplay upside — unless the metrics are carefully designed.
– Net‑zero duty: Stripping the Bank of an explicit net‑zero obligation would shift responsibility for climate‑related economic guidance back into government, a move likely to draw criticism from those who view climate risk as a core macroeconomic concern. Opponents in government have already seized on the proposal, questioning the credibility of Reform’s costings and underlying priorities.
Market reaction and next steps
City traders and economists greeted the announcement with cautious interest. Many said independent scrutiny of Reform’s costings could boost credibility — but only if the numbers are timely, transparent and withstand rigorous examination. Officials and analysts have signalled they will reserve judgment until detailed policy documents arrive; the next decisive moment will be when Reform submits full fiscal plans to official forecasters.
Political fallout
Rival ministers have criticised the proposals, accusing Reform of understating its own record and proposing unfunded spending plans. The reshuffle that accompanied Jenrick’s speech also sharpened questions about the party’s internal coherence and capacity to deliver complex economic reforms. Supporters counter that the move toward independent costings and professionalised advisory channels marks a serious attempt to close the gap with mainstream parties on credibility. Whether that balancing act convinces investors — or merely keeps them on hold until the fine print appears — will depend on the timeliness and technical rigour of Reform’s forthcoming policy papers and the way proposed safeguards address the obvious trade‑offs between independence, expertise and accountability.
