Scottish Labour Leadership: Who Will Step Up After Anas Sarwar?

Scottish Labour faces an uncertain future as Anas Sarwar's leadership comes into question. Explore the potential successors and the party's existential crisis.

The political landscape in Scotland is abuzz with speculation about the future of Scottish Labour. After a dismal performance in the recent Holyrood elections, the party finds itself at a crossroads. Anas Sarwar, the current leader, led his party to its worst-ever defeat, with candidates barely retaining their deposits in key constituencies like Arbroath, Broughty Ferry, and Aberdeen South.

Despite the turmoil, Sarwar’s position remains surprisingly secure—for now. The timeline for his potential departure is unclear, with some suggesting he might step down after the summer recess, while others believe he could stay for up to a year.

The succession planning, however, is taking an unusual turn. Five names are being considered, but only one candidate is driven by ambition, while the others feel a sense of obligation.

Potential Successors and Their Ambitions

The search for a new leader is fraught with uncertainty.

Michael Marra, the only Labour figure willing to go on the record, has stated that there is “no vacancy to be filled” and expressed support for Sarwar seeing the party through the current period. Behind the scenes, Marra is actively seeking support for a potential run and is working on a credible pitch to Labour members.

Daniel Johnson, the Edinburgh Southern MSP, is another hotly tipped candidate. Sources close to Johnson say he would not “categorically” rule out a leadership tilt. Paul Sweeney, a Glasgow list MSP, has publicly stated he has no plans to run but is understood to be persuadable. Joe Fagan, the former South Lanarkshire Council leader, is considered a “dark horse” and is believed to be Jackie Bailie’s first choice. Monica Lennon, who lost her seat in Rutherglen and Cambuslang, could also be a contender if Sarwar steps down from parliament.

The Existential Crisis of Scottish Labour

Scottish Labour is grappling with fundamental philosophical questions about its future. The party is in an existential crisis, and a change of prime minister is seen as no saviour. One Labour MSP emphasized that “this should be the social democracy moment,” yet that vision is not part of the current conversations. The party needs to think hard about its relationship with the UK party and its referendum position.

Michael Marra is often blamed for the party’s election defeat. Some insiders believe he is the only viable choice among the potential candidates, while others argue he has positioned himself too early, earning the moniker “Scottish Wes Streeting.” Paul Sweeney is similarly divisive, with some certain he would win if he stood, and others equally certain of the opposite. Daniel Johnson is generally well-liked but faces criticism for not being the right fit for the party’s vision. Monica Lennon is seen as a dominant candidate for a significant section of the party.

The Path Forward

The timing of Sarwar’s potential departure is crucial. Most voices want him to stay until after the local elections, where there is little optimism for electoral improvement. An earlier departure could lead to a new leader facing immediate challenges. The party is divided on whether there will be a bloodless coronation or a protracted, messy realignment.

“The fact is, Anas is currently the best we’ve got,” said one insider. “At least when he goes, and I think that will be sooner than people are saying, it will be with dignity. That’s the one thing Scottish Labour has over Starmer now.”