Russell Findlay and Ruth Davidson are campaigning on the idea that bleak projections are making the Scottish Conservatives more determined to win regional list votes and stop an SNP majority
The Scottish election campaign has entered a volatile phase as party leaders and strategists respond to a high-profile MRP poll that reshuffles expectations across Holyrood. On the doorstep in Burnside, South Lanarkshire, Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay framed gloomy headline numbers as a spur, saying that pessimistic forecasts are energising his team rather than demoralising them.
He urged supporters to use the distinctive peach ballot paper for the regional list ballot to maximise Conservative representation in the parliament.
Former party leader Baroness Ruth Davidson joined the campaign stop and described the peach paper as a key tactical option for voters who want to prevent a single-party nationalist majority.
The message echoes strategies from previous contests, where regional ballots played a decisive role in shaping the makeup of Holyrood. Meanwhile, the party continues to highlight cost-of-living themes and promises to reduce taxes and focus on getting Scotland working again.
What the MRP poll shows
A comprehensive multilevel regression with post-stratification study conducted for More in Common interviewed more than 5,000 Scots between February 4 and April 10. The model projects the SNP would be reduced to 56 seats, down from 64 at the previous election, while Reform UK is forecast to rise to 22 seats, overtaking other unionist parties in several regions. The survey places Scottish Labour on about 17 seats, with the Conservatives falling to 12 from 31, and the Liberal Democrats moving up to 14 seats. The Greens are projected to remain around eight MSPs.
Margins and the tactical picture
The analysis finds that 39 of the 73 constituency seats are now marginal seats — defined in the study as contests expected to be decided by less than five percentage points. That level of closeness means seemingly small shifts, targeted campaigns or tactical voting on the regional list could produce significant changes in which parties secure power after polling day.
Political responses and campaign strategies
In response to the figures, Mr Findlay argued his party has a track record of outperforming gloomy predictions and urged voters to replicate past successes by supporting the Conservatives on the peach list. He stressed the party’s focus on practical issues — such as the cost of living and employment — as alternatives to what he described as the SNP’s constitutional agenda. Mr Findlay was campaigning alongside candidate Annie Wells, the party’s lead candidate for Glasgow on the regional list.
Unionist dynamics and tactical warnings
The poll’s balance introduces a scenario where unionist forces could combine to prevent the nationalists from forming a majority. Some unionist voices have suggested cooperation or tactical voting could block an SNP majority even if the party remains the largest single group. Conservative campaigners have warned that votes for Reform UK may inadvertently help the SNP by fragmenting the unionist vote, urging supporters to prioritise the peach regional ballot for the Conservatives.
Voices from other parties and wider implications
Reactions across the political spectrum reflect both opportunity and caution. The SNP welcomed the poll as evidence of sustained support but warned against complacency, while Labour figures emphasised concerns about public services and urged voters seeking change to back their party. Reform UK claimed its surge demonstrates appetite for new unionist options, and the Lib Dems pointed to projected constituency gains in northern mainland areas as signs of growing momentum.
What could decide the result
Because the MRP model shows close contests in many parts of the country, turnout patterns, postal ballots and tactical use of the regional list will be particularly important. The projection underscores that the distribution of seats — not just the share of votes — will determine whether the next parliament enables a further push for separation or results in a unionist bloc able to block a majority. Parties across the spectrum are adjusting their final-week appeals accordingly.
Final considerations
In short, the poll has crystallised a widely shared sense among campaign teams that the outcome is uncertain and every ballot counts. The Scottish Conservatives are using that uncertainty as a rallying cry, encouraging supporters to use the peach ballot paper as a tactical tool, while other parties interpret the same data as either encouragement or a warning. As campaigns head into the closing phase, the interplay between constituency contests and the regional list will remain at the centre of strategy discussions for all major parties.
