El Niño 2026: How the UK’s Weather May Change Due to the Super El Niño Phenomenon

As the UK faces scorching temperatures, experts warn that a Super El Niño could push mercury levels even higher later this year.

The UK is currently experiencing a heat dome that has brought record-breaking temperatures. However, meteorologists are warning of an even more intense weather phenomenon on the horizon: a Super El Niño. This natural climate event, characterized by warmer waters in the equatorial Pacific, is expected to have widespread effects on global weather patterns, including the UK.

NASA has confirmed that the El Niño event is underway and experts predict it will bring extreme heat almost everywhere including the UK. While the UK’s weather is primarily influenced by the Atlantic, the indirect effects of a strong El Niño could raise global temperatures and exacerbate the heating effects of climate change.

El Niño’s Potential Impact on the UK

Simon Culling, a data collector and investigator for the Tornado & Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) suggests that the upcoming El Niño could lead to hotter summers in both 2026 and 2027, as well as an increased risk of a significant cold spell during the winter of 2026/27.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has also warned of hotter-than-normal temperatures across nearly all parts of the globe.

Yesterday, the UK recorded its hottest June day at 36.1°C in Gosport, Hampshire, breaking the previous record of 35.6°C set in 1976 and 1957. While the weather is expected to transition into more changeable conditions over the weekend, forecasts indicate that July will be drier than average with above-normal temperatures.

The Strength of the 2026 El Niño

Meteorologists believe that this year’s El Niño could be as intense as the 1997/98 event, which saw global temperatures reach record highs. During that period, the UK experienced an exceptionally hot, sunny, and humid August, characterized by prolonged heatwaves. Grahame Madge, a climate science communicator at the Met Office described the 1997/98 El Niño as a significant event that led to the warmest year on record at the time.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural climate pattern that cycles between the hot El Niño and the cool La Niña phases every two to seven years. During El Niño, warm waters in the Pacific spread out, raising the Earth’s average surface temperature. This heat escapes into the atmosphere, raising global temperatures for months. Current measurements show that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are rising faster than at any other time this century, with the potential to reach 1.5–2°C above normal.

Global Weather Patterns and El Niño

The WMO forecasts above-normal temperatures in nearly all parts of the globe with the strongest heat signals expected across southern and western North America, Central America, the Caribbean, Europe, North Africa, and much of Asia. Northern parts of Asia may also experience warmer-than-usual conditions, although the forecast there is less certain. In the Southern Hemisphere, warmer-than-normal conditions are expected across many areas, particularly in Northern South America and Southern Africa.

In Australia, warmer conditions are mainly expected along the western, southern, and eastern coasts, while tropical regions around the world, including Equatorial Africa and parts of Southeast Asia, are also forecast to be hotter than normal. Celeste Saulo, WMO Secretary-General, emphasized the need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event, which could exacerbate drought, heavy rainfall, and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean.

The UK’s top 5 warmest years on record are 2026 (10.09°C), 2026 (10.03°C), 2026 (9.97°C), 2014 (9.88°C), and 2026 (9.79°C). While El Niño is a significant driver of global weather, other factors also influence climate patterns. As the world prepares for the potential impacts of this Super El Niño, staying informed and prepared is crucial.