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Understanding football through data: a beginner’s guide to expected goals

Get an introduction to football analytics and learn how expected goals can enhance your football experience

Understanding football through data: a beginner's guide to expected goals

Football analytics is a rapidly growing field that uses data to gain insights into the game. One of the key metrics in football analytics is expected goals which measures the likelihood of a shot resulting in a goal. Expected goals takes into account various factors such as the location of the shot, the type of shot, and the opponent’s defense.

Understanding expected goals can help casual fans appreciate the game more. By analyzing expected goals fans can identify which teams and players are performing well and which are not. xGxGAxA and shot quality are some of the key terms used in football analytics.

What are expected goals?

Expected goals is a metric that measures the likelihood of a shot resulting in a goal. It takes into account various factors such as the location of the shot, the type of shot, and the opponent’s defense.

Expected goals is calculated using a complex algorithm that analyzes data from thousands of shots.

How to read match dashboards

A match dashboard is a visual representation of a football match that shows various metrics such as expected goalsshots on target and pass completion percentage. To read a match dashboard, fans need to understand what each metric means and how it relates to the game. Match dashboards can help fans identify which teams and players are performing well and which are not.

Avoiding common stat traps

When analyzing football data, it’s essential to avoid common stat traps such as confirmation bias and cherry-picking. Confirmation bias occurs when fans only look at data that confirms their pre-existing beliefs, while cherry-picking involves selecting only the data that supports a particular argument. To avoid these traps, fans need to look at the data objectively and consider multiple perspectives.

Free data sources

There are several free data sources available that provide football analytics data. These sources include Opta SportsFiveThirtyEight and Whoscored. Fans can use these sources to access data on expected goalsshots on target and other metrics.

Applying insights to understand team form

By applying insights from football analytics, fans can gain a deeper understanding of team form. Team form refers to a team’s performance over a specific period. By analyzing expected goals and other metrics, fans can identify which teams are performing well and which are not. This can help fans make informed decisions about which teams to support and which players to watch.


Contacts:
James Whitfield

James Whitfield grew up in Manchester watching Sunday football, then carved a career covering Premier League weekends and F1 paddocks. Knows the difference between xG noise and signal.