UK trade moved into a small deficit in February 2026 after exports fell and imports climbed, with goods weakening while services showed modest resilience
The United Kingdom recorded a trade deficit of £0.72 billion in February 2026, reversing from a revised surplus of £3.02 billion in January. On a monthly basis, total exports fell by 1.5% to £80.20 billion while total imports rose by 3.2% to £80.92 billion.
The headline swing reflected a pronounced drop in goods exports and stronger inflows of goods from abroad, alongside only small increases in services trade. These figures are reported by the Office for National Statistics and exclude non-monetary gold and other precious metals so as not to distort trends.
Monthly composition: goods down, services steady
Goods movements were the largest influence on the monthly change. Goods exports declined 3.9% to £33.26 billion, while goods imports grew 4.7% to £52.05 billion. By contrast, services exports inched up 0.3% to £46.95 billion and services imports rose 0.6% to £28.88 billion.
When values are adjusted to remove the effect of inflation using chained volume measures, goods imports still rose by £2.0 billion (3.9%) and goods exports fell by £0.8 billion (2.6%), underlining that the underlying physical flow of trade weakened for exports even after inflation effects are controlled for.
Regional and commodity drivers
Breaking down by partner, exports fell to both EU and non-EU destinations: exports to the EU were down 0.7% and to non-EU markets down 2.3%. Notably, exports of chemicals and certain machinery components declined, which pushed the non-EU fall. However, exports to the United States rose sharply—by 11.3%—driven mainly by higher shipments of machinery and transport equipment and material manufactures. On the import side, increases came from both EU and non-EU suppliers; imports from non-EU countries rose by £1.7 billion (7.5%) and from the EU by £0.6 billion (2.3%). Key import increases included cars from China, inorganic chemicals from Japan, and medicinal products from Germany.
Country specifics and short-term quirks
Trade with the United States showed mixed moves: exports to the US rose by £0.5 billion while imports from the US fell by £0.4 billion, the latter largely due to reduced aircraft purchases and partially offset by higher gas imports. Monthly data can be volatile, and the bulletin emphasizes that short-term swings—especially in categories like precious metals—can mask longer-term trends. The ONS therefore flags that these figures are seasonally adjusted and shown in current price terms, and that early estimates for services are made using survey forecasts and time series methods.
Three-month trends and broader context
Over the three months to February 2026, the combined goods and services trade deficit narrowed by £0.3 billion to £2.8 billion compared with the three months to November 2026. Within that window the trade in goods deficit widened by £1.0 billion to £57.1 billion, while the services surplus increased by £1.3 billion to £54.2 billion. These patterns echo a long-standing feature of UK external accounts: persistent deficits in goods that are partially offset by a strong services surplus. The share of trade accounted for by services has been rising, amounting to around 38% as of 2026.
Historical record and outlook
Long-run data show the UK has been in a goods-led trade deficit since 1998. Trading Economics notes an average balance of around -£1,190 million from 1955 to 2026, with a peak surplus of £9,471 million in May 2026 and a low of -£10,899 million in January 2026. Their models project a deeper deficit for the quarter ending in February 2026 (around -£3,600 million) and forecast residual negative balances of about -£2,500 million in 2027 and -£2,200 million in 2028. Analysts caution that monthly figures are noisy and that policy changes—such as tariffs introduced in April 2026—can leave a persistent imprint on bilateral flows.
What this means for markets and policy
For businesses and policymakers the immediate message is that the UK remains vulnerable to swings in goods trade, particularly in chemicals, machinery and transport equipment, and vehicles. A growing services sector cushions the headline position but does not fully offset the goods shortfall. Close monitoring of partner-country demand, commodity prices, and the effects of past tariff changes will be important for assessing near-term risks. The ONS bulletin and Trading Economics provide the detailed datasets and model outputs that underpin these conclusions for those seeking the raw figures and historical series.
Sources: Office for National Statistics and Trading Economics, as published in the February 2026 UK trade bulletins and accompanying datasets. Figures quoted are seasonally adjusted and exclude non-monetary gold unless otherwise noted.
