Montpellier are favourites for the 22 May 2026 final, but Ulster's back three, a robust pack and strategic kicking mean Bilbao could produce a close game
The stage is set at San Mamés Stadium in Bilbao for the EPCR Challenge Cup final on 22 May 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 9pm local time / 8pm UK & Ireland time. Broadcasters ITV and Premier Sports will carry the match, and bookmakers have installed Montpellier as favourites with a -7 handicap.
On paper the clash promises a familiar contrast: Montpellier’s imposing, battle-hardened Top 14 forwards against Ulster’s speed, mobility and tactical kicking. Both sides arrive determined, but each must execute a clear plan under the pressure of a one-off final.
The return of Robert Baloucoune is the headline for Ulster. He makes his first provincial start since the Six Nations, injecting genuine pace on the wing alongside Zac Ward and Michael Lowry in the back three. That trio gives Ulster the kind of broken-field threat that can punish loose kicking or hurried transitions.
Meanwhile, Montpellier bring a heavy roster and finals experience; their starting lineup includes the likes of Billy Vunipola (captain) and a backline capable of territorial control through pressure kicking and physical midfield carries.
Ulster’s game plan and personnel
Richie Murphy has named a side built around speed in the backline and power up front. The starting XV sees Nathan Doak at scrum-half and Jack Murphy at fly-half, a pairing whose tactical kicking and tempo control will be decisive. At the core of the pack, Nick Timoney captains from openside flanker, supported by a balanced back row of David McCann, Timoney and Juarno Augustus. With Iain Henderson suspended for the final, others such as Angus Bell, Tom Stewart and Tom O’Toole have added responsibility to match Montpellier’s collision game and maul threat.
Key Ulster strengths
Ulster’s best chance is to convert pressure into quick scores when opportunities appear. Their strengths include a high-tempo back three able to exploit turnovers, a breakdown-focused flank led by Timoney, and bench options such as Jake Flannery and Ethan McIlroy who can change the backline dynamic late. Discipline will be essential: if Ulster avoid conceding repeated penalties and manage field position with accurate kicking, they can keep the game within the handicap and push Montpellier in the final quarter.
Montpellier’s edge and selection
Montpellier Hérault Rugby come with the weight of Top 14 experience and a starting XV designed to control territory and collisions. Their backline includes Tom Banks, Gabriel N’Gandebe, Arthur Vincent and Donovan Taofifenua, while Domingo Miotti directs from fly-half and Ali Price wears nine. Up front, the pack packs size with names such as Enzo Forletta, Jordan Uelese and the authoritative presence of Billy Vunipola at number eight and captaincy responsibility.
Montpellier’s tactical profile
Montpellier will aim to impose a structured game built on set-piece dominance and penalty accumulation. Their strategy typically centers on earning valuable front-foot possession and using a measured kicking game to control phases—an approach that turns marginal decisions into scoreboard advantage. Against Ulster’s pace, Montpellier will seek to close space quickly, force contact, and make the home side defend in narrow channels where the French club’s heavier forwards can exert influence.
Match-up outlook and prediction
The contest shapes up as a battle between Top 14 forward power and Ulster speed. Key battles include the collision exchanges where the second rows and back rows meet, and the duel between each side’s half-backs over territory and tempo. If Montpellier win the set-piece skirmishes and the penalty count, they can methodically build a margin. Conversely, if Ulster convert turnover ball into rapid attacks via Baloucoune, Ward and Lowry, the match could remain tight until late.
Bookmakers have the handicap at Montpellier -7, which reflects the French side’s heavier squad and finals pedigree. Taking present form and squad depth into account, the prediction leans to a Montpellier victory by a single-score margin. Final prediction: Montpellier by 8-12 points. Below are the confirmed Ulster starters and replacements, and Montpellier’s named XV for the final.
Ulster rugby team (start and replacements)
Start: Angus Bell, Tom Stewart, Tom O’Toole, Harry Sheridan, Cormac Izuchukwu, David McCann, Nick Timoney (captain), Juarno Augustus, Nathan Doak, Jack Murphy, Zac Ward, Jude Postlethwaite, James Hume, Robert Baloucoune, Michael Lowry. Replacements: James McCormick, Eric O’Sullivan, Scott Wilson, Charlie Irvine, Bryn Ward, Conor McKee, Jake Flannery, Ethan McIlroy.
Montpellier starting XV
Start: Tom Banks, Gabriel N’Gandebe, Arthur Vincent, Auguste Cadot, Donovan Taofifenua, Domingo Miotti, Ali Price, Enzo Forletta, Jordan Uelese, Mohamed Haouas, Florian Verhaeghe, Tyler DuGuid, Lenni Nouchi, Alex Becognee, Billy Vunipola (captain). Replacements include: Lyam Akrab, Baptiste Erdocio, Wilfrid Hounkpatin, Adam Beard, Marco Tauleigne, Leo Coly, Thomas Darmon, Jon (listed).
Whatever the result, the Bilbao final promises a high-stakes encounter where strategy, discipline and execution at the breakdown and set-piece will decide the outcome. Fans can expect a gripping finish as Ulster chase maiden Challenge Cup glory and Montpellier bid for a second title.
