This article summarises AHDB’s revised UK cereal supply and demand estimates for the 2026/26 season, explains why wheat and barley stocks are lower than forecast in March, and highlights the main sources of uncertainty and actions industry can take.
The latest assessment of the UK cereal balance sheet shows a reduction in stocks for the 2026/26 season compared with earlier projections. Drawing on survey returns and official data from Defra, the Scottish Government, DAERA and HMRC, AHDB has trimmed its estimates for end-season holdings of wheat, barley and oats.
These adjustments reflect a mix of demand-side changes — notably the restart of bioethanol production at Ensus — plus revised on-farm feed usage and evolving trade flows.
AHDB publishes supply and demand figures on behalf of Defra and will next update the official balance sheet on 17 September 2026 (provisional).
The figures presented here summarise the agency’s current view of the market, the key drivers behind the revisions, and the areas where uncertainty remains highest.
Revisions to end-season stocks and the main drivers
Compared with the March outlook, AHDB now forecasts lower closing stocks across several cereals.
Wheat stocks are estimated at 1.919 Mt, a fall of 235 Kt versus the earlier projection, driven by stronger consumption in human and industrial uses, including increased demand for bioethanol and starch processing. If these figures hold, they would represent the lowest wheat carryover since 2026.
Barley is also tighter, with forecast closing stocks of 1.266 Mt, down 47 Kt from March. The shift combines higher on-farm feed use and reduced imports, partly because GB-sourced barley has displaced some imports into Northern Ireland. Oats have been revised down to 87 Kt, 6 Kt lower than earlier estimates, a level AHDB notes would be the smallest since 2012/13, helped in part by decent milling quality from the 2026 harvest.
Why estimates changed: surveys, market signals and production nuances
AHDB’s balance sheets are built on a combination of administrative and survey data. Trade and mandated cereal usage returns are relatively robust, but survey-based items such as the quantity of grain fed on farm have greater sampling uncertainty. A recent upward revision to on-farm feed estimates partly reflects Defra’s end-February survey showing lower on-farm wheat and barley stocks in England and Wales than previously assumed.
Market behaviour has also influenced the picture. With delivered prices for old-crop grain trading above new-crop values, there is a clear incentive to move grain into the current season for consumption rather than carry it forward — a dynamic that tends to reduce end-season stocks. The restart of Ensus bioethanol operations after government support resumed in April increased anticipated H&I usage for wheat and some maize, which AHDB has incorporated into the estimates for the remainder of the season (to end-June 2026).
Production variability and confidence bands
Defra’s crop production estimates and their associated confidence intervals help quantify possible variation. For example, Defra estimated the English wheat crop at 10.677 Mt for 2026 with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 226 Kt (i.e., a range of 10.452–10.903 Mt). Given the market tightness and the premium on old-crop grain, AHDB notes production could realistically sit toward the lower end of that range.
Stocks, regional differences and residuals
On-farm stocks reported by Defra at end-February 2026 for England and Wales were lower year-on-year: wheat stocks down about 9% and barley down roughly 25%. However, region-to-region variation exists. Scotland reported a large cereal harvest in 2026 — its biggest for a decade — and weaker distilling demand this season has changed how stocks are distributed across the UK.
AHDB also highlights a significant residual from tallying last season’s data: after reconciling supply and demand for 2026/25, a 531 Kt residual remained. While some residual is expected when combining multiple survey sources, this magnitude introduces additional ambiguity about precisely how much stock was carried into 2026/26 and therefore how tight the current season truly is.
What the tighter picture means and where uncertainty is concentrated
Lower predicted carryover leaves less of a buffer against a difficult 2026 harvest, making the timing and progress of harvest activities more critical. Yet even with tightening, the revised wheat and barley stocks remain close to five-year averages, so the market is not unequivocally undersupplied. Still, industry participants report particularly tight market conditions in some channels, which may reflect the combination of physical flows, quality considerations and timing of deliveries.
Key areas of uncertainty include: the precise volumes of grain fed on farm, regional differences in stocks and usage, and any production surprises from the 2026 harvest. Weather impacts on grass growth may also alter on-farm feeding decisions and thereby cereal usage in coming months.
How stakeholders can help and next steps
AHDB and government agencies rely on good survey participation to refine estimates. Growers are encouraged to respond to Defra, Scottish Government, Welsh Assembly and DAERA surveys to strengthen the data foundation. Traders and processors who can provide market insights are invited to engage with AHDB’s market specialists to inform the forecasting process.
AHDB, the Audit Function Group and Defra continue to work on improving the quality of inputs to the balance sheets. The organisation will publish a consolidated dataset covering the 2026/26 season in September 2026, alongside ongoing market commentary and updates.
