Makerfield By-Election: Andy Burnham’s Path to Labour Leadership

The Makerfield by-election could decide the next prime minister, with Andy Burnham poised to challenge Sir Keir Starmer's leadership.

The political landscape in the UK is on the brink of a significant shift, with the Makerfield by-election taking center stage. This election, set to take place on Thursday, could determine the next prime minister, as the 76,641 voters in this former coal mining town near Wigan hold the key to the future of the Labour government.

The by-election was triggered by the resignation of former Makerfield MP Josh Simons, paving the way for Andy Burnham to return to Westminster. Burnham, the current Greater Manchester mayor, has been a prominent figure in Labour politics and is seen by many as a viable alternative to Sir Keir Starmer.

Pressure Mounts for Burnham to Challenge Starmer

Impatient Labour MPs are urging Andy Burnham to launch a leadership bid as soon as possible if he wins the Makerfield by-election. The clamor to end the uncertainty over Sir Keir starmer‘s government has grown louder, with some MPs suggesting the contest could start as early as Monday.

Labour Riverside MP Kim Johnson told The Independent that her colleagues want the contest to begin “hopefully as soon as possible.” Another MP noted, “We can’t mess around and delay further.” The pressure is mounting as Burnham held an eve-of-poll rally, promising “change is coming” to British politics.

Burnham appealed to voters, stating, “A vote for me is a vote to end 40 years of trickle-down economics that didn’t trickle down much at all to people here.” He emphasized the need to bring down water and energy bills, make life more affordable, and “power up the North of England.”

Potential Contenders and Political Maneuvering

Former health secretary Wes Streeting has warned he could initiate a leadership challenge as early as next week if Sir Keir fails to “depart on his own terms” should Burnham win. The recently resigned former armed forces minister Al Carns is also looking to stand, but Angela Rayner appears set to back Burnham instead.

A veteran MP observed, “I think patience has run out. A contest could take months, and we have to get this done.” Another added, “It is over for Starmer. Hopefully, he realises it and we can get on with making Andy leader.”

In a last-ditch effort to save his government, Sir Keir offered Burnham a government job if he is elected. However, sources close to Burnham have made it clear he will not accept the offer, signaling his readiness to challenge Starmer for the top job.

Polling Data and Political Implications

Data collected by Reform candidates shows Burnham is expected to win by around 5 per cent, while private polling for Labour suggests an even more comfortable margin. A survey of 774 leading businesspeople reveals Burnham is their preferred choice as PM with a net +16 per cent on improving the business environment.

Pollsters Survation predicted Burnham will win by 10 points, while a Politics UK poll of polls suggests Burnham will get 46 per cent, Reform 39 per cent, and Rupert Lowe’s rightwing Restore Britain party 7 per cent.

Leading polling analysts have warned that a defeat for Labour to Reform in Makerfield would be catastrophic. Professor Sir John Curtice said a Labour defeat could leave the party in a prolonged leadership contest if Starmer insists on staying. Lord Robert Hayward, a Tory peer, noted that a Labour loss would be a blow to the party and a boost for Reform.

As the political drama unfolds, the Makerfield by-election is set to be a pivotal moment in British politics, with the potential to reshape the Labour Party and the future of the country.