How Restore Britain could sway the Makerfield by-election outcome

The Makerfield by-election is heating up as Restore Britain emerges as a key player, potentially altering the political landscape.

The political landscape in Makerfield is undergoing a significant shift as a new contender, Restore Britainenters the fray. With just over a week until the crucial by-election, the dynamics of the race are evolving, potentially altering the anticipated outcome.

The presence of Restore Britainfounded by Rupert Loweis causing a stir among political analysts and campaign strategists. The party, which positions itself further to the right than Reform UK on issues such as immigration, is attracting voters who might otherwise have supported Nigel Farage‘s party.

Polling data reveals a tight race

A recent poll conducted by Opinium for the campaign group Forward Democracy has shed light on the current standings. The poll, which surveyed 543 adults, indicates that Andy Burnhamthe mayor of Greater Manchester, holds a narrow lead with 46 per cent of the vote.

Robert Kenyonthe Reform UK candidate, trails closely behind with 41 per cent. Rebecca Shepherd of Restore Britain is polling at roughly 7 per cent, a figure that could be pivotal in determining the final outcome.

The margin of error in the poll is just under 5 per cent, indicating that the race is too close to call. The poll also reveals that the Conservatives are polling at around 2.5 per cent, while the Greens and Lib Dems are each below 2 per cent, suggesting they may lose their deposits.

The impact of Restore Britain

Restore Britain has emerged as a potential spoiler in the by-election, with its support largely coming from disaffected Reform UK voters. The party’s presence is complicating the political calculus, as its voters could swing the contest in favor of Andy Burnham.

Professor Sir John Curtice, a leading pollster, has noted that Restore Britain could make the difference between Reform winning or not winning. He suggests that the party is attracting younger voters who might otherwise support Reform UK.

Nigel Farage has downplayed the impact of Restore Britaininsisting that the contest is a two-horse race between Labour and Reform UK. However, the polling data suggests that Restore Britain is indeed poaching voters from Reform UKpotentially altering the outcome of the by-election.

Campaign dynamics and voter sentiment

The campaign trail in Makerfield has been marked by intense interactions, with some areas becoming no-go zones for Labour campaigners. The anger directed at Labour is not universal, however, with many voters expressing their support for Andy Burnham.

A private poll commissioned by the Labour Party and seen by The i Paper shows that Restore Britain is polling at 13 per cent, eating into Reform UK‘s support. The poll, which surveyed 1,119 voters, indicates that if combined, the right-wing, anti-Burnham vote could prevent him from returning to parliament.

The Restore Britain vote is coming from disaffected Reform UK voters, with some expressing anger at Nigel Farage‘s compromises. The party’s leader, Rupert Lowehas been vocal about his stance on immigration and other issues, attracting voters who feel that Reform UK has moved away from its core principles.

As the by-election approaches, the political landscape in Makerfield continues to evolve. The presence of Restore Britain has added a new dimension to the race, potentially altering the outcome and shaping the future of British politics.