The Greater Manchester mayoral by-election has entered a second round, with Labour's Bev Craig and Reform UK's Sian Astley as the remaining candidates.
The race to become the next mayor of Greater Manchester has intensified as the election enters a second round. With no candidate securing more than 50% of the first-choice votes, the contest now hinges on the supplementary vote system.
Labour’s Bev Craig and Reform UK’s Sian Astley are the final contenders, with the outcome dependent on second-choice preferences.
This by-election, triggered by Andy Burnham‘s election as MP for Makerfield, has drawn significant attention. Over two million people were eligible to vote, yet only one in four cast their ballots, marking the lowest turnout in the region’s mayoral races.
The initial round of counting took place at the Co-op Live in Manchester, with the final result eagerly awaited.
The candidates in the spotlight
The two remaining candidates, Bev Craig and Sian Astley represent distinct political visions for Greater Manchester.
Craig, currently the leader of Manchester City Council and an ally of Burnham, has been described as his protégé. She made history as the first female and first LGBTQ+ leader of the council and holds the deputy role for economy, business, and inclusive growth.
Sian Astley, on the other hand, was elected as a councillor for the Baguley ward in May 2026. A professional landlord and interior design business owner, Astley brings a unique perspective to the race. The five eliminated candidates include Geraldine Coggins from the Green Party, Phil Eckersley from the Conservatives, Marcus Farmer as an Independent, Richard Kilpatrick from the Liberal Democrats, and Marlon West from Restore Britain.
The supplementary vote system explained
The supplementary vote (SV) system, used in the 2017 and 2026 mayoral elections, allows voters to express a first and second choice. In this by-election, no candidate achieved the required 50% of first-choice votes, necessitating a second round. The ballot papers of the eliminated candidates are being recounted, and any second-choice votes for Craig or Astley will be added to their first-choice totals.
This system, which favors candidates with broader appeal, could significantly impact the final outcome. In 2026, Andy Burnham won in the first round with 67% of first preference votes. However, the current race is more tightly contested, with the result hinging on the redistribution of second-choice votes.
The political landscape and implications
The by-election comes at a pivotal time for Greater Manchester, with the region’s mayor controlling a £3bn annual budget and powers over housing, health, policing, and transport. The outcome will not only shape the future of the region but also provide insights into the political landscape ahead of the next local elections in May.
Labour is widely seen as having an advantage under the SV system, as it is more likely to be picked as the second choice for Green, Liberal Democrat, and even some Conservative voters. Reform UK, by contrast, cannot count on such broad support. The result will be closely watched by all parties, with implications for the upcoming local elections.
As the counting continues, the political world awaits the final result, which will determine the next leader of Greater Manchester and set the stage for future elections in the region.
