Counting in the Wales Senedd election points to a historic shift, with Labour acknowledging it will not form the next government as Plaid Cymru and Reform UK make strong early showings
The count of ballots in the Wales Senedd election has produced early indications of a seismic political shift. With votes being tallied across constituencies, senior Labour figures have signalled that the party will not be in a position to form the next Welsh government.
The admission came as local and regional counts suggested that long-standing Labour dominance in many South Wales heartlands has eroded, while parties such as Plaid Cymru and Reform UK reported strong performances in key areas. Observers are tracking turnout, postal vote verification and constituency-level swings to understand how deep the changes may be.
Senior Welsh Labour officials stressed they had campaigned on a positive platform, but acknowledged that their message had not connected sufficiently with voters. Huw Irranca-Davies, the party’s deputy first minister, told broadcasters he did not expect Labour to be in a position to form the next government as counts progressed.
First Minister Eluned Morgan was also facing an uncertain outcome in the Ceredigion Penfro contest, underlining how close several races had become. Those developments mark a departure from more than a century in which Labour has been the largest nationwide force in Wales.
Early results and where they matter most
Some of the earliest and most watched returns came from constituencies in South Wales. The Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni constituency was reported as one of the first areas to complete counting checks, and party sources described the Labour vote there as having collapsed in sections of its traditional territory. In Casnewydd Islwyn and Newport, counts and verifications continued as candidates and campaign teams monitored postal ballots and constituency totals. Election officials noted that large volumes of postal vote verification could influence the pace and predictability of declarations, leaving aggressive forecasts subject to change until final figures are confirmed.
Where Plaid Cymru and Reform UK have made inroads
Plaid Cymru consistently led opinion polls during the campaign, and early remarks from the party suggested optimism that the nationalists could emerge strongly. Party figures described their prospects as looking “good” from partial returns. Meanwhile, Reform UK reported stand-out performances in some seats, with their Wales leader among those expected to win representation. In Newport, for example, Reform’s advance was widely reported and the party’s local teams were visibly buoyant at counts. Candidates from both parties highlighted the role of tactical voting in shaping close races, acknowledging that shifting alliances on the ground may have produced unexpected results.
Key names and constituencies to watch
Several individual contests became symbolic of the overall pattern. The Ceredigion Penfro race was closely watched because it included the first minister, Eluned Morgan, whose future depended on results counted across two local centres. In Casnewydd Islwyn and Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni, party sources suggested that Labour might struggle to retain seats that were previously considered secure. Reform candidates in Newport and other areas were cautious with public comment but indicated confidence, while Plaid candidates such as Peredur Owen Griffiths pointed to the unpredictability introduced by tens of thousands of postal ballots awaiting verification.
Turnout and the mechanics of this election
Turnout appeared to be a crucial variable. Early indicators suggested participation could rise above 50%, a significant increase compared with previous devolved elections. Analysts noted that higher participation, combined with an expanded Senedd and altered constituency boundaries, would change the arithmetic for forming a majority. The schedule for declarations was expected to be drawn out, with some constituencies aiming for afternoon announcements and others likely to report later as verifications and recount checks were completed. These logistical factors emphasised how the new system could produce delayed clarity about the final political map.
What this means for Wales and the wider UK
Political commentators pointed to broader implications if Labour were to lose power in Wales for the first time in a century. Voices across the spectrum suggested the result could reshape the Westminster debate, particularly if nationalists lead devolved governments in multiple nations. Some analysts warned that three nationalist first ministers in the UK could raise long-term questions about the union’s future. Closer to home, party leaders in Westminster accepted responsibility for poor results in English local elections, acknowledging a difficult set of outcomes for Labour nationally even as Welsh dynamics followed their own trajectory.
As the counts continued, campaign teams, commentators and voters awaited definitive totals. The unfolding picture combined practical counting issues—such as postal ballot verification—with deeper political shifts in voter sentiment. Whatever the final composition of the next Senedd, the early returns made clear that Wales is experiencing an unusual and potentially transformative electoral moment.
